商用飞机与资本设备需求强劲回升 美国11月耐用品订单录得六个月来最大涨幅

Core Insights - US durable goods orders recorded the largest increase in six months in November, driven by a significant rise in commercial aircraft and other capital equipment bookings, indicating sustained business investment momentum heading into 2026 [1] - The November durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month-over-month, following a revised decline of 2.1% in October [1] - Core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft and military hardware, rose by 0.7% in November, surpassing market expectations and reflecting robust demand for equipment procurement [5] Group 1 - Commercial aircraft orders saw a nearly 98% increase in November, with Boeing receiving 164 aircraft orders compared to just 15 in October, further rising to 175 in the following month [5] - Shipments of core capital goods, excluding aircraft and military products, increased by 0.4%, with economists believing that shipment data better reflects potential investment trends due to the time lag between orders and actual deliveries [5][6] - The durable goods report indicated widespread order growth across sectors such as communication equipment, computers, machinery, and electrical equipment, suggesting a broad recovery in business spending [5] Group 2 - Economists expect business investment to further rebound this year, aided by the "big and beautiful" tax reform enacted by President Trump last year, alongside a gradual adaptation to reduced trade policy uncertainty and declining demand concerns [5] - Stephen Stanley, Chief US Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, noted that while uncertainty remains, corporate executives appear to have sufficient information to advance decision-making [5] - The strong performance of core capital goods orders and shipments in the second half of last year indicates that business investment momentum is gradually building ahead of 2026 [6]