智库预计新泰国政府将于5月前成立

Group 1 - The Economic Information Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank predicts that the formation of the new government may take up to five months, potentially negatively impacting the economy with a projected growth rate of less than 1% in the first half of the year [1] - EIC expects the new coalition government to face constraints in advancing its policy agenda due to no single party obtaining a decisive majority in parliament, similar to the results of the 2023 elections [1] - The passage of the fiscal budget for FY2027 is anticipated to be delayed by 1 to 2 months, leading to corresponding delays in budget allocations and public spending for the year [1] Group 2 - EIC notes that while political parties' campaign promises mainly focus on cash subsidies, there are proposals for governance reforms and broader structural reforms in various areas, including household debt, competitiveness, infrastructure investment, environmental risks, demographic issues, labor quality, inequality, social welfare, and public sector governance [1] - The support for the economy from the outgoing government is expected to gradually weaken during the transition period [2][3] - EIC forecasts a decline in export value this year due to the implementation of further U.S. import tariffs and increased global competition, negatively impacting external demand [3] Group 3 - The Thai economy continues to benefit from a gradual recovery in foreign tourist numbers, with significant contributions from markets such as Europe, India, and the United States, alongside signs of recovery in Chinese tourist numbers due to new flight routes [3] - EIC anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% in the first half of the year, maintaining this level throughout 2026, in response to weak economic growth, heightened political uncertainty, and a general contraction in private sector credit [4]