21评论丨金价涨势能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of over $5,100 per ounce, is primarily driven by supply scarcity and increasing demand from various sectors, including central banks and industrial applications [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The total amount of gold mined throughout history is approximately 216,000 tons, with only about 55,000 to 64,000 tons of gold currently available for extraction under existing technological conditions. At the current mining rate, global gold reserves could be depleted in 15 to 18 years without new discoveries [1]. - Industrial demand for gold is significant, accounting for about 15% of global gold usage, while jewelry constitutes approximately 45%. Central bank reserves and gold ETFs represent 17% and 22% respectively [4]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks have increased their gold reserves significantly, with the proportion of gold in global official reserves rising to about 28.9%, an increase of approximately 11.9% year-on-year. This trend is largely attributed to geopolitical instability, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have led to a reconfiguration of the global governance system, further elevating gold's status as a protective asset [4]. Economic Context - The deterioration of the U.S. dollar's credit system, exacerbated by rising national debt projected to exceed $40 trillion, is prompting global central banks to adjust their reserve assets. This shift is contributing to the increased demand for gold as an alternative investment [5]. Investment Trends - The global gold ETF market has seen a substantial increase, with a net inflow of approximately $89 billion in 2025, bringing total assets under management to a record $559 billion. This trend indicates a growing interest among both institutional and individual investors in gold as a viable investment option [5].