沪铝或维持高位震荡

Group 1 - The Trump administration's internal and external challenges have led to a significant weakening of the US dollar index [2] - Guinea's AGB2A-GIC aluminum alliance has received approval to resume production, with expectations to contribute approximately 40 million tons of bauxite supply by 2026 [2] - China's alumina production is projected to reach 92.45 million tons in 2026, with a net export volume of 2 million tons, indicating a loose global supply-demand situation for alumina [2] Group 2 - Global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to reach 76.58 million tons in 2026, with China's production at 45.44 million tons [3] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in 2026 is projected to be 76.51 million tons globally, with China's demand at 47.33 million tons, suggesting a slightly loose supply-demand balance [3] - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products and seasonal demand growth in the aluminum foil sector have led to an increase in operating capacity for aluminum processing enterprises [3] Group 3 - In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar index may suppress downstream demand, keeping aluminum prices stable [4] - In the medium to long term, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and slow production ramp-up of new electrolytic aluminum capacity may provide upward price potential for aluminum [4]