大摩2026年十大“导航”预测：投资者如何在AI、能源与多极世界剧变中寻找方向？

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley outlines 10 investment predictions to help investors navigate "extreme market volatility" [1] - Key themes include AI/technology diffusion, the future of energy, a "multipolar world," and social change [1] - Social change encompasses AI-driven job disruption, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, and health longevity pursuits [1] Group 2 - Progress in large language models (LLMs) is expected to lead to a significant leap in capabilities by mid-2026, with bullish sentiment anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Demand for computing power is projected to grow exponentially due to the proliferation of AI applications, outpacing supply growth [1] - The new "Intelligence Factory" model indicates attractive economic benefits for LLM developers at the data center level [1] Group 3 - The U.S. government is expected to adopt a tougher policy agenda, focusing on domestic supply of critical minerals, uranium, and metals [2] - Other countries will pressure the U.S. for broader AI technology transfers, impacting global trade dynamics and the pursuit of "Gross Domestic Intelligence" [2] - Rising global energy costs will lead to a rebound in data center expansion, prompting policies to support low-cost energy solutions [2] Group 4 - Key AI players will strengthen control over energy infrastructure to secure the lowest cost and most reliable power [2] - China aims to expand its global manufacturing market share in high-tech industries, while the U.S. experiences a "re-shoring renaissance" [3] - Structural technology diffusion will diminish the advantage of low-cost labor, shifting production back to the U.S. [3] Group 5 - Latin America is entering a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates [3] - Companies and governments will initiate retraining programs for workers facing job transitions due to AI, with various policy interventions to manage labor transitions [3] - "Transformative AI" is expected to drive deflation and economic transformation, with initial signs emerging in the second half of 2026 [3]