Ge Long Hui·2026-01-27 03:01Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank is expected to achieve a 1.2% year-on-year growth in net profit to 150.2 billion yuan by 2025, surpassing both the bank's and market forecasts, primarily due to improvements in net interest income and a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in non-interest income [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is anticipated to remain stable year-on-year for the previous year [1] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] - The bank's provision coverage ratio has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating, but the target price has been reduced from 52 HKD to 49 HKD to reflect the latest profit revisions and lower long-term ROE forecasts [1] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been increased by 1%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been decreased by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1]