金荣中国：金价早盘低位震荡后反弹，日内再回落后多单布局

Fundamental Analysis - Gold and silver prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching historical highs, with silver narrowing its gains to 2% at approximately $105 per ounce after previously rising by 14% [1] - Gold's gains were reduced to less than 0.8%, trading around $5020 per ounce after peaking at $5110.86 per ounce, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and strong safe-haven buying [1] - The geopolitical climate is further strained by President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada and increased tariffs on South Korea, contributing to trade tensions [1] - Crude oil prices are around $60.83 per barrel, with a slight decline as the market assesses the impact of a winter storm on production and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with major indices rising for the fourth consecutive trading day, as investors await upcoming earnings reports from tech giants and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price rose by 2% to $5077.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $5110.86, continuing a strong upward trend after a 64% increase in 2025 and nearly 18% year-to-date [3] - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are the core drivers supporting gold prices, alongside ongoing central bank purchases and a 20% year-on-year increase in gold ETF holdings [3] - Société Générale predicts gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [3] - Other precious metals also saw significant increases, with silver surging 10.2% to $113.46 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $117.70, driven by strong retail and momentum investor buying [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week is at 97.2%, with a 40.2% chance of rates remaining steady until June [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 97.2% [4] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 15.5%, with a 40.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged until June [4] Trade Relations - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on certain South Korean goods to 25% due to the failure of the South Korean National Assembly to ratify a trade agreement with the U.S. [4]