楼市大局已定？2026年的房价，悄悄露出这4个“明确信号”

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a correction phase since 2022, with significant price declines observed across various cities, including major ones like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where prices have dropped by approximately 30% [1][5][6] - By 2026, the market is expected to experience further differentiation among cities and districts, with areas that have inflated prices continuing to see declines, while prices will gradually return to more affordable levels [2][6] Group 1: Market Trends - Major cities' core areas are no longer immune to price declines, challenging the belief that these locations are always safe investments [4][6] - In Shanghai, for instance, prices in central districts have fallen from over 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 to just above 60,000 yuan, indicating a significant market correction [5][6] - The market is shifting towards a more sustainable pricing model, where affordability becomes a key focus [6] Group 2: Demographic Changes - The aging population is contributing to a decrease in the number of first-time homebuyers, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above by the end of 2024 [8][10] - Younger generations, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are showing a declining interest in homeownership, with many opting to delay or forgo purchasing homes altogether [8][10] Group 3: Housing Supply Dynamics - The introduction of affordable housing is set to increase significantly, with plans to deliver around one million units annually starting in 2024, which will reshape the housing market [11][12] - The market is becoming divided into two segments: affordable housing for basic needs and commodity housing aimed at higher-income families, leading to a weakened support system for commodity housing prices [16] Group 4: Market Activity - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, nearing ten million by the end of 2025, with some cities experiencing over 50% year-on-year increases in listings [15] - Despite the increase in listings, the actual sales are slowing down, with many cities seeing transaction periods extend beyond six months, indicating a retreat of investors and a cautious approach from buyers [15][16] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overarching theme for the real estate market in 2026 is expected to be "steady decline," with no imminent crash but rather a gradual process of inventory digestion and bubble deflation [18][19] - Understanding these market signals is deemed more critical than any optimistic forecasts of immediate rebounds [19]