转型迟滞难挽业绩颓势，山鹰国际2025年扣非预亏超10亿元

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanying International, is expected to report a net loss of 850 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive year of losses in this category and a significant increase in loss amounts compared to the previous year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The paper industry continues to experience a loose supply-demand balance, leading to sustained pressure on prices for key products like corrugated paper, while raw material costs remain high, further squeezing overall profitability [2][4]. - The company's projected net loss for 2025 is nearly double the 445 million yuan loss reported in 2024, with the non-recurring net profit loss reaching the worst level since 2023 [2][3]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and reduced investment income, with the latter impacted by lower returns from joint ventures compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Debt and Market Performance - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had 4.147 billion yuan in cash but faced significant debt pressures with short-term borrowings of 15.55 billion yuan and long-term borrowings of 6.323 billion yuan, indicating a challenging debt structure [3]. - The company's stock price has been on a downward trend since 2022, falling from around 3 yuan to approximately 1.65 yuan, with a historical low of 1.32 yuan in June 2024, nearing the delisting warning line [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Context and Competitive Position - The paper industry is undergoing structural adjustments characterized by supply-demand imbalances and high costs, with traditional paper products facing oversupply and price pressures, while high-value segments like specialty paper are growing but require significant investment [4][5]. - Competitors such as Sun Paper and Xianhe Shares have successfully integrated their supply chains and achieved high self-sufficiency in raw materials, enhancing their competitive edge and profitability [5][6]. - In contrast, Shanying International's efforts to establish its own wood fiber production have lagged behind competitors, with projects still in the planning stage and not yet contributing to actual production [6].