Core Insights - Xtep's core brand retail sell-through remained flattish YoY, while Saucony experienced over 30% YoY growth, indicating a polarization between mass and premium markets [1][2] - Xtep is expected to achieve moderate growth in 2026, supported by Saucony's performance, despite overall market pressures [1][3] Performance Analysis - Xtep's core brand faced deceleration in a weaker consumer market, while Saucony's growth was bolstered by improved e-commerce operations [2] - Retail sales for Saucony in physical stores remained strong, reflecting effective expansion strategies in premium districts [3] Future Guidance - Management anticipates a more conservative 2026 guidance due to weaker peer performance and ongoing consumption pressures [4] - The 2026-2027 EPS forecast has been lowered by 3% to account for anticipated challenges [5] Valuation Metrics - Target price for Xtep has been reduced to HK$6.50, based on a revised P/E multiple of 10.5x for 2026E [6] - Despite the lowered target multiple, Xtep's valuation remains attractive with an 8x 2026E P/E and a 6% dividend yield, contingent on stable core brand performance and growth from Saucony [6]
XTEP INTERNATIONAL(1368.HK)4Q25：SAUCONY REMAINED AS KEY DRIVER DESPITE WEAK MASS MARKET
Ge Long Hui·2026-01-27 06:03