东兴证券：中长期国内乳制品需求增长 26年原奶价格有望迎来回升

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that there are initial signs and a certain basis for an increase in milk prices, driven by a decline in dairy cow inventory and expected short-term reductions in raw milk production [1] Group 1: Dairy Cow Inventory and Production - The domestic dairy cow inventory is projected to decrease to 6.3 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.55%, ending a five-year growth trend [2] - Raw milk production is estimated at 40.79 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Despite the decline in inventory, the average milk yield is expected to reach 9.9 tons per cow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.51%, indicating a slight increase in overall milk production [2] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - The quantity of imported dairy products has significantly decreased due to price discrepancies, with net imports estimated at 14.35 million tons in December 2024, a reduction of 35.31% compared to December 2021 [3] - The total supply of raw milk in China is projected to decline from a historical high of 59.01 million tons in 2021 to 55.14 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 4% [4] - The report suggests that the total supply of dairy products may remain stable but slightly contract in the coming years due to ongoing declines in dairy cow inventory and fluctuating international trade conditions [4] Group 3: Demand Trends - Domestic per capita dairy consumption is expected to be 12.6 kg in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.55%, indicating weak demand [5] - Despite the current weakness, there is potential for growth in dairy product consumption, particularly in high-end products like milk powder and cheese, which are experiencing an upward trend [5] - The rural market is becoming an important growth point, with projected dairy consumption reaching 5.506 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous year, but expected to grow to 6.354 million tons by 2029, with a CAGR of 3.65% from 2025 to 2029 [5]