泡泡玛特(09992.HK):新爆款带动IP势能 业绩与估值具备修复空间
Ge Long Hui·2026-01-27 06:25

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong confidence in its future development and stock price through recent share buybacks, with management repurchasing 1.9 million shares between January 19 and 21, 2023, of which 1.4 million shares have been canceled [2][3] Group 1: Share Buyback - The company announced a share buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share, representing 0.0373% of the existing shares [1] - Additionally, the company repurchased and canceled 1.4 million shares at a price of 179.60 yuan per share, accounting for 0.1042% of the total shares at that time [1] Group 2: Product Performance and IP Potential - Recent trends indicate that the company's new products, such as the PUCKY and Starry People series, have sold out on official websites and are experiencing significant price premiums on second-hand platforms, with hidden versions priced at 2-3 times and 3-6 times their original prices, respectively [3] - The company is optimistic about the potential for its IP to grow, especially during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by popular products [3] Group 3: Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [3][4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 35.62 billion, 51.25 billion, and 63.45 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% [3][4] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company anticipates a gross margin exceeding 70% in the first half of 2025, with an expected gross margin of around 71% for 2025-2027 due to improved scale effects in overseas operations and supply chain optimization [4] - Sales expense ratios are projected to decrease to approximately 20-21% over the next three years, while management expense ratios are expected to decline to around 5-6% [4][5]