多重逆风下2025年全球航空业展现强劲韧性 旅客运输量据估达49.8亿人次

Group 1: Global Aviation Industry Outlook - The global aviation industry is expected to reach a historic peak in 2025, with passenger throughput at nearly 70 million at Singapore Changi Airport, reflecting the strong recovery in air travel demand [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that global air passenger transport is showing greater stability and resilience, with airlines achieving stable profitability despite challenges such as supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical conflicts [1] - Global air transport demand is projected to continue growing, with an estimated 4.4% increase in passenger transport volume in 2026, reaching 5.2 billion passengers [2] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region is leading the growth in air passenger transport, with a projected net profit of approximately $6.2 billion in 2025, expected to rise to $6.6 billion in 2026 [2] - In December 2025, seven out of the ten busiest global routes are expected to be in Asia, with a forecasted 7.3% growth in passenger demand for the region in 2026, significantly above the global average [2] - Europe is maintaining stable financial performance, supported by low-cost carriers and a robust leisure market, with Budapest's Liszt International Airport achieving a record passenger throughput of 19 million [3] Group 3: Air Cargo Trends - Global air cargo is outpacing overall trade growth, with a 25% year-on-year increase in air trade volume from January to August 2025, and a projected air cargo volume of 7.16 million tons in 2026, up 2.4% [4] - The Asia-Europe and intra-Asia routes are identified as the most active corridors for air cargo growth, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for approximately 40% of global air cargo volume [4][5] Group 4: Structural Challenges and Sustainability - The global aviation industry faces structural challenges, including the commitment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) consumption expected to remain below 1% by the end of 2026 due to insufficient policy incentives [7] - Chinese companies are contributing to sustainable development, with successful flight tests of aircraft using up to 50% SAF and the establishment of five SAF refineries with a combined annual capacity exceeding 1 million tons [7] - Supply chain bottlenecks are expected to continue limiting the expansion of air transport capacity, with a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders, equivalent to about 60% of the current fleet size [8]