国金证券：“存款搬家”的几个事实

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the upcoming maturity of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the shift in residents' savings behavior and asset allocation strategies [3][44]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Context - In 2026, the topic of "deposit migration" arises as high-interest fixed-term deposits mature, with a significant focus on the impact of declining deposit rates [3][44]. - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the previous discourse on "excess savings" three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and reduced consumption willingness [3][44]. - In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion, while in 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion, with fixed-term deposits making up 96% of this amount [3][44]. Group 2: Sources of Excess Deposits - The formation of excess deposits can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets from wealth management products to deposits [4][45]. - The total savings rate increased by 2 percentage points in 2022, with total savings rising by 3 trillion compared to 2021 [4][45]. Group 3: Future Deposit Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion for both 2024 and 2025 [6][48]. - The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [6][48]. Group 4: Maturity of Deposits - By 2026, the maturity scale of household fixed-term deposits is estimated to be around 70 trillion, with the first quarter being the peak maturity period [11][51]. - The estimated maturity of fixed-term deposits in 2026 is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [11][51]. Group 5: Deposit Renewal Rates - The deposit renewal rate is currently around 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be renewed rather than withdrawn from the banking system [15][55]. - The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to decline to around 88% in 2024 [15][55]. Group 6: Asset Allocation Post-Migration - The primary destinations for migrated deposits are low-risk assets such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions [5][59]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion and in wealth management products by 2.8 trillion [24][64]. Group 7: Impact of Market Conditions - The allocation to high-risk assets is primarily driven by market conditions rather than deposit migration, with significant fluctuations observed in the investment in securities and funds based on market performance [20][60]. - The proportion of funds flowing into risk assets is estimated to be between 13% and 20%, depending on market conditions, with a higher allocation during favorable market periods [21][61].