Ge Long Hui·2026-01-27 06:40Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report an adjusted net loss of 13.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a revenue growth of 4% year-on-year to 91.9 billion yuan, resulting in an adjusted net loss margin of 14% [1] Group 1: Q4 2025 Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a core local business operating loss of 11.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of -17.8%, aligning with previous expectations [1] - In the food delivery segment, competition intensity has decreased during the off-season, with expected order volume growth slowing to 13% year-on-year; despite a reduction in average user expenditure loss compared to Q3 2025, it is still projected to exceed 2 yuan [1] - The flash purchase segment is expected to see a strong year-on-year order volume growth of 30%, with average losses per order less than 1 yuan, resulting in an OPM of -19.5% [1] - The in-store travel and accommodation segment is projected to maintain stable growth in gross transaction value (GTV) and revenue, but OPM is expected to decline to 25.6% due to competition from Douyin [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Entering 2026, competition uncertainty remains, particularly in the food delivery sector, where focus is shifting towards high-ticket markets and non-food retail; the company aims to strengthen consumer recognition of its user experience advantages [2] - Regulatory interventions against unfair competition are expected to curb irrational competitive behaviors in the industry, with a need to monitor the pace and specifics of these regulations [2] - Competitors are enhancing their agent capabilities and integrating into various life scenarios, with AI potentially becoming a variable affecting competition [2] - In the in-store travel and accommodation sector, competition is currently more rational compared to 2023, but attention is needed on Douyin's potential expansion into more verticals and Alibaba's increased investment in the in-store domain [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 at -16.8 billion yuan, while lowering the 2026 forecast from 19.6 billion yuan to -9.7 billion yuan, and reducing the 2027 forecast by 34% to 29.9 billion yuan [2] - The company is rated to outperform the industry, with a target price of 125 HKD, corresponding to a 23x adjusted P/E for 2027E and a 28% upside potential; the current price corresponds to an 18x adjusted P/E for 2027E [2]