大华继显：降招商银行目标价至49港元 续予“持有”评级

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa Capital Markets maintains a "Hold" rating on China Merchants Bank (600036) but lowers the target price from HKD 52 to HKD 49, reflecting recent profit revisions and a lower long-term ROE forecast [1] Financial Performance - China Merchants Bank expects a 1.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, reaching RMB 150.2 billion, which exceeds both the bank's and market's expectations due to improvements in net interest income and a narrowing decline in non-interest income [1] - The bank's ROE is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The bank's earnings forecast for 2025 has been raised by 1%, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1] Provision Coverage - The provision coverage ratio of China Merchants Bank has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] - Despite the decline, the bank's provision coverage ratio remains above that of its peers [1]