摩根大通：平头哥拟上市：估值占阿里6-14%，市场信号几何？

Core Insights - Alibaba's chip business, "Pingtouge," is rumored to be considering a separate IPO, which has garnered significant attention in the market [2] - JPMorgan estimates Pingtouge's potential valuation to be between $25 billion and $62 billion, representing approximately 6% to 14% of Alibaba's current market value [2] Valuation Analysis - The valuation range of $25 billion to $62 billion is not based on a precise modeling of the chip business fundamentals but rather on aggressive revenue projections for 2026, comparing Pingtouge with domestic peers like Kunlun Chip and Cambricon [3] - This valuation is highly sensitive to three core factors: the actual scope of assets for sale, the competitiveness of Pingtouge's chip products compared to domestic and international competitors, and the design of the final transaction structure [3] Market Timing and Focus - JPMorgan expresses surprise at Alibaba's decision to signal the potential IPO of Pingtouge at this time, as the market's current narrative is focused on Alibaba's "cloud + generative AI" core business monetization [4] - Pingtouge's current revenue primarily comes from internal sources within Alibaba, and its external commercialization path remains unclear [4] Short-term Sentiment vs Long-term Strategy - Despite the excitement generated by Pingtouge's news, JPMorgan believes this market enthusiasm is unlikely to be sustained in the long term [5] - The analysts are more optimistic about Alibaba's trading prospects over the next 6-12 months, anticipating accelerated revenue growth from Alibaba Cloud driven by AI [5] - The ongoing business spin-offs, including Alibaba Cloud and Pingtouge, are part of a broader strategy to unlock asset value and showcase the potential of various business segments [5] Industry Context and Challenges - In the rapidly developing domestic chip industry, a successful IPO for Pingtouge could provide more funding and resources to accelerate its R&D and commercialization efforts [5] - However, Pingtouge faces multiple challenges in proving its ability to operate independently and achieve breakthroughs in technology, products, and market presence [5] Fundamental Focus - Investors are advised to focus on Alibaba's fundamentals and the performance of Alibaba Cloud in the AI era, as sustained revenue growth in this area is crucial for enhancing Alibaba's overall value [6]