贸易不确定性与供应紧张推升美国中西部铝溢价至每磅1美元以上

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. aluminum market is anticipating a significant influx of imported aluminum in early 2026 to replenish inventory gaps, driven by tight spot supply and rising premiums [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Platts Midwest aluminum premium reached a historic high of $1.0095 per pound on January 23, 2026, surpassing the $1 per pound mark for the first time [1]. - The premium is expected to remain elevated in the first quarter of 2026 as new P1020 aluminum arrives in the U.S., with spot buyers accepting higher costs due to supply constraints [3]. - The Midwest premium increased by 55% from the price level of 50% tariffs that took effect on June 4, 2025, with a December 31, 2025 premium of 91.05 cents per pound [3]. Group 2: Import and Trade Relations - The U.S. imported 1.54 million tons of aluminum in 2025, with approximately 70% (1.01 million tons) sourced from Canada, while only India and the UAE exported over 100,000 tons to the U.S. [3]. - Due to uncertainties in U.S.-Canada relations and high European aluminum premiums, much of Canada's available capacity is committed to the European market until the end of the first quarter [4]. Group 3: Demand and Order Trends - Demand for aluminum in the U.S. is expected to remain stable from late 2025 to early 2026, with average order volumes from domestic producers only slightly differing from the previous year [6]. - However, aluminum order volumes began to decline at the end of 2025, with flat-rolled product orders decreasing by 11.4% month-over-month and extruded product orders down by 21.9% [6]. Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainties - Evaluating long-term demand is challenging due to fluctuating trade policies, with speculation about potential increases or decreases in aluminum tariffs [7]. - Participants are cautious, managing existing inventories and minimizing spot business, with overall storage estimates significantly below 200,000 tons [7]. Group 5: Contract Negotiations - The Platts Midwest premium forward curve has been in backwardation since its launch on January 2, 2026, with market participants relying on contracts and existing supplier relationships to meet short-term needs [8]. - Negotiations for 2026 contracts have started earlier and lasted longer than in previous years, as annual discounts are no longer feasible [8][9].