国金证券：茶饮市场扩容持续 供应链铸就头部壁垒

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry is entering a mid-to-late growth stage, characterized by an increase in consumption frequency and market scale due to the expansion of ready-to-drink beverage scenarios and structural substitution of soft drinks [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The current market size of ready-to-drink beverages in China is expected to grow, driven by an increase in per capita consumption frequency, which is projected to maintain a CAGR of 22.4% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - In 2023, the average per capita consumption frequency of ready-to-drink beverages in China is 22 cups, with a CAGR of 22.4% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The market size of ready-to-drink beverages is anticipated to see a year-on-year growth of over 22% by 2026 [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Leading brands are experiencing steady growth in store numbers and improving store efficiency due to their supply chain and product advantages, while smaller brands are gradually exiting the market due to insufficient supply chain capabilities [2] - In the high-price segment, BaWang Tea Ji is solidifying its leading position with brand strength and high-quality products, expecting to reach approximately 7,000 stores by Q4 2025, a 13% year-on-year increase [2] - In the mid-price segment, GuMing has achieved over 10,000 stores through regional expansion strategies and product innovation, while ChaBaiDao and HuShangAyi are closely following with quality upgrades [2] - In the low-price segment, MiXue Ice City is expanding its market share with price advantages, expecting to surpass 40,000 stores by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Leading brands are establishing cost advantages and risk resilience through large-scale procurement and deep penetration into upstream supply chains to ensure product differentiation [3] - Efficient cold chain coverage and high-frequency delivery ensure the freshness of raw materials for leading brands, while a dense logistics network helps achieve cost advantages [3] Group 4: Focus on Leading Chain Brands - In the context of increasing industry concentration and intensified homogenization competition, leading chain brands with scalable supply chains and strong brand advantages are expected to dominate in store expansion and single-store operations [4]