李蓓：长期投资价值消退，上个月已清仓所有黄金

Core Viewpoint - The core attribute of gold is its ability to "run flat against inflation over a century," with long-term gold prices (20-30 years) driven by global central bank purchasing behavior [1] Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - After 2000, central bank purchases led to a rising gold cycle, but this logic has now reversed [1] - The Central Bank of Russia, the fifth largest holder of gold reserves globally, has begun selling gold, signaling a significant shift in the long-term cycle [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Strategy - Dr. Li Zhao from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the valuation residual of gold reached a historical high at the end of last year, suggesting it is currently overvalued [1] - The founder of Banxia Investment, Li Bei, has liquidated all gold holdings, citing a decline in long-term investment value [1] - While gold may not necessarily decline, it could experience high-level fluctuations, and the opportunity cost is significant as cyclical blue-chip stocks in China may enter a bull market over the next two years [1] Group 3: Currency and Risk Considerations - With the appreciation of the RMB, gold priced in RMB may decline, further diminishing its investment value [1] - Ordinary investors are advised against following trends and should be cautious of the dual risks of high-level fluctuations and exchange rate volatility [1]