ZFX山海证券：利率维持下的市场耐心

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate levels in the short term, focusing on economic performance rather than external factors [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has not shown significant rebound, with initial jobless claims remaining at historically low levels, indicating a stabilizing job market [4]. - Economic growth momentum remains resilient, with previous quarterly growth showing strength and no clear signs of contraction from businesses or consumers [8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Approach - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy reflects a "observe-validate-act" rhythm, prioritizing data clarity over hasty adjustments [4][8]. - Inflation remains a critical variable, with recent data indicating fluctuating price increases, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Investors are gradually accepting the reality of a slowed pace of interest rate cuts, with futures indicating limited potential cuts this year, contingent on clear changes in the economy or inflation [12]. - This convergence of expectations helps reduce market volatility and provides a more stable anchor for asset pricing [12]. Group 4: Overall Assessment - The Federal Reserve's policy will continue to revolve around economic fundamentals, and maintaining current interest rates does not signify a directional change but rather a prudent choice [12].