投资者预防“业绩杀”，欧洲奢侈品股绩前“先跌为敬”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for a challenging earnings season for luxury goods manufacturers, with geopolitical tensions and uncertain consumer demand in China impacting stock performance, leading to an 8.1% decline in a basket of luxury stocks under Goldman Sachs this year, erasing much of the gains from the previous two quarters [1][3] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - LVMH is set to release its fourth-quarter results, which will serve as a test for the overall industry, with Kering SA and Hermes International also scheduled to report earnings soon [3] - Analysts expect an average decline of 6.1% in fourth-quarter earnings for LVMH, Hermes, Kering, and Moncler, significantly underperforming the MSCI Europe index's expected growth of 1.3% during the same period [3] - The key focus for this earnings season is whether these companies can express confidence in achieving a profit rebound by 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury sector has been viewed as "Europe's large tech stocks" due to their size, rapid growth, and robust business models, but overall performance has lagged behind the market since rising interest rates and weakening demand in China began in 2022 [3] - Recent easing of tariff pressures, particularly after Trump abandoned plans for tariffs related to Greenland, has provided some relief to the industry, with North America expected to be a significant growth driver this year [4][10] - Analysts note that the luxury sector's recovery is crucial, with expectations of a 5% revenue growth for the industry this year, although a decline of 1% is anticipated from 2023 to 2025 [7] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Valuation - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday is a critical sales period for luxury goods, allowing executives to comment on observed trends during earnings calls [10] - Despite a slight recovery in market sentiment and early signs of consumer recovery in China, high-end brands are expected to perform better than entry-level brands in 2025, while fashion-forward and entry-level luxury brands face long-term demand challenges [10] - Investor caution is attributed to high valuations, with luxury stocks trading at a 74% premium over the Stoxx Europe 600 index, despite a recent decline in expected price-to-earnings ratios [10]