大摩前瞻苹果(AAPL.US)Q1财报：短期承压，静待下半财年密集催化

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious outlook on Apple's near-term fundamentals ahead of its Q1 earnings report, but remains optimistic about multiple catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $315. Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Market Sentiment - iPhone 17 demand remains strong, suggesting that Apple's revenue may exceed expectations, but memory cost pressures and misjudgments regarding operating expenses could limit the positive revision space for EPS, making it difficult for the stock to gain support during the earnings release period [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple's stock price may experience sideways movement or a slight decline post-earnings, as the market has not fully recognized the strong performance of iPhone 17, with their revenue forecasts for the December and March quarters being 4%-8% higher than market consensus [1][2] - The firm notes that the market's forecast for March quarter operating expenses is 7% lower than theirs, and their gross margin forecast is 30 basis points lower than consensus, which could restrict EPS revisions even if revenue exceeds expectations [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook and Catalysts - Despite short-term cost pressures, Morgan Stanley believes that Apple will outperform the market by 2026, with multiple catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year, including the relaunch of Siri, the introduction of a foldable iPhone, and the release of the 2nm iPhone 18 [2] - The current iPhone upgrade cycle is at a high of 4.7 years, and the anticipated $100 price increase for the iPhone 18 series is expected to support EPS of $9.77 for FY2027, which is 7% above market consensus, maintaining a 12% EPS growth rate through FY2028 [2] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 25 times the projected FY2027 EPS, which is only 1.2 times the S&P 500 index valuation, indicating that both absolute and relative valuations are near historical lows [3] - The firm believes there is positive asymmetric potential in valuation, as the EPS growth rate is expected to remain at 12% through FY2028, supporting their "Overweight" rating and target price of $315 [3] Group 4: Supply Chain Insights and Revenue Predictions - Morgan Stanley's supply chain research indicates that iPhone production capacity for the December quarter is exceptionally strong, with some estimates nearing 90 million units, while their forecast for shipments is 83 million units [3][4] - The firm has raised its iPhone revenue forecast for the December quarter to $80 billion (83 million units shipped), which is 4% higher than market consensus, and for the March quarter to $55.4 billion (60 million units shipped), which is 8% higher than consensus [4] Group 5: Key Focus Areas for Earnings Call - The report emphasizes five key areas to focus on during the earnings call: the impact of memory costs on future quarters, sustainability of AI-related operating expenses, disclosure of new device installation bases, commercialization plans for Gemini collaboration, and resilience of demand in the Chinese market [5]