Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-27 12:44Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is expected to enter a golden window in 2026, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies boosting liquidity and demand [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure, declining ore grades, and frequent mine production cuts, leading to sustained pressure on copper and aluminum supplies [1][5] - Demand remains resilient in traditional sectors while emerging fields like AI data centers and energy storage are experiencing explosive growth, becoming key drivers of marginal demand [1][2] Group 2 - The copper market is characterized by a structural shortage, with refined copper expected to face a shortfall of 380,000 tons in 2026, leading to an upward price trend [1][5] - The aluminum sector is in a tight balance phase, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and new capacity additions constrained by high costs and power supply issues in regions like Indonesia [2][5] - Demand for aluminum is significantly improving, particularly in transportation and power electronics, with a projected domestic aluminum shortfall increasing from 150,000 tons in 2025 to 1,070,000 tons by 2027 [2][5] Group 3 - The financial attributes of copper are strengthened by the ongoing interest rate cuts, while its commodity attributes are constrained by supply-side tensions [5] - The demand for copper in data centers is projected to reach 268,000 tons by 2026, driven by the growth of AI and energy storage applications [1][24] - The aluminum demand in data centers is estimated at 78,000 tons globally and 20,000 tons domestically by 2026, with aluminum primarily used in structural and electrical applications [39][40] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on companies in the copper sector with sustainable growth, including Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Nonferrous Mining, while also highlighting aluminum companies with strong dividend yields and profit elasticity [5][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain risks related to bauxite, as the industry remains highly dependent on external sources [5][55]