日元危局难解？高市早苗“政治豪赌”拉响财政警报

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure due to concerns over Japan's fiscal health, despite expectations of coordinated buying by the US and Japan to support the currency. The upcoming elections and the government's economic stimulus plans further complicate the situation [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Japanese government debt now accounts for approximately 230% of GDP, the highest among developed countries [5]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's campaign for early elections is based on expanding economic stimulus measures, which may weaken the effectiveness of any currency intervention [1][5]. - The market's concern over Japan's fiscal management has intensified, leading to a significant sell-off in the stock market and a decline in the yen against the euro and Swiss franc [5]. Group 2: Currency Intervention - Historical experience suggests that actual market interventions may have limited impact, especially in the context of Japan's fiscal crisis concerns [1][6]. - The yen's depreciation has prompted discussions of potential intervention, with expectations that a breach of the 160 yen per dollar mark could trigger the first round of intervention [4]. - Despite the potential for US-Japan coordinated intervention, the effectiveness is expected to be limited, primarily due to a lack of investor confidence in Japan's fiscal management capabilities [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Fund manager Toshinobu Chiba indicated that if Takaichi wins decisively and pushes for more stimulus, the yen could fall to 180 per dollar, a level not seen since 1986 [3]. - The recent spike in Japanese government bond yields has not supported the yen as expected, indicating a disconnect between bond yields and currency value [2][5]. - The upcoming elections are seen as a critical moment for Takaichi's economic agenda, with the potential for significant market reactions based on the election outcome [1][5].