Here's How to Play Chevron Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation (CVX) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, with revenues estimated at $52.7 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.8% year-over-year, while earnings per share (EPS) is projected at $1.47, indicating a nearly 29% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - For the full year 2025, Chevron's revenues are estimated at $191.8 billion, representing a decrease of 5.5% year-over-year, with EPS expected to be $7.25, indicating a contraction of around 27.9% [2]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Chevron achieved an earnings surprise of 11.5%, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.8% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Chevron in the fourth quarter, as the Earnings ESP is -2.39% and the Zacks Rank is 4 (Sell) [4][5]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Despite strong upstream production momentum, earnings may be limited by weaker realized oil prices and higher depreciation costs. Upstream earnings are estimated at $2.9 billion, down 33% year-over-year, due to lower liquids realizations [6][8]. - Chevron's downstream segment is expected to contribute positively, with estimated income of $760 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $248 million in the previous year, supported by refining gains and cost savings [10][11]. Capital Expenditures and Financial Commitments - Chevron's ongoing capital commitments, including organic capital expenditures of $4.4 billion in Q3 and full-year 2025 capex guidance of $17–$17.5 billion, may pressure fourth-quarter earnings [9]. Market Comparison - Chevron's stock has increased by 7.2% over the past six months, compared to a 10% growth in the broader Zacks Energy sector, while ExxonMobil's shares rose by 21% [14]. Valuation Perspective - Chevron is trading at a premium compared to the industry average in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio and is above its five-year mean of 11.86 [17].