Tesla(US:TSLA) Invezz·2026-01-27 15:00Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to report weak Q4 2025 earnings, with revenue projected to decline by 3.6% to $24.5 billion and profit per share potentially dropping by 40% to $0.44, driven by a 15.6% decrease in vehicle deliveries. However, the energy segment may provide a significant upside surprise, potentially offsetting some of the automotive challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Revenue is anticipated to fall to $24.5 billion, a 3.6% decrease year-over-year [1]. - Profit per share is expected to decline by 40% to $0.44, reflecting a significant drop in vehicle deliveries [1]. - Vehicle deliveries are projected to decrease by 15.6%, indicating a slowdown in Tesla's auto business [1]. Group 2: Energy Segment Insights - Tesla's Energy segment is expected to generate $3.825 billion in revenue with a gross margin of approximately 31.1%, nearly double the automotive gross margin of 17% [1]. - The energy revenue grew by 44% year-over-year in Q3, driven by demand from AI data centers requiring stable power [1]. - Tesla's Megapack is positioned as a solution for power supply volatility, catering to major clients like xAI, Google, and OpenAI [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Regulatory credit revenue fell by 43.6% year-over-year to $417 million, with forecasts predicting a 75% decline in 2026, impacting overall profitability [1]. - The political actions of CEO Elon Musk have been estimated to have cost Tesla between 1.0 to 1.26 million potential vehicle sales from October 2022 to April 2025, with significant impacts noted in Q1 2025 [1]. - The shift to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) may lead to a surge in January sales but could face challenges in subscriber retention and monetization in subsequent quarters [1].