杨德龙：2026年做好大类资产配置至关重要

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic behind the continuous rise in gold prices reflects a wave of de-dollarization, with the U.S. government debt reaching $38 trillion and annual bond interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of government revenue [1] - Many central banks are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing their physical gold holdings, indicating a lack of trust in the dollar's credit [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, with a potential long-term target of $10,000 per ounce, despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to allocate about 20% of their portfolios to gold assets, including physical gold, paper gold, gold ETFs, gold-themed funds, or gold stocks, to effectively hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation risks [1] - The contrasting trends of rising gold prices and declining U.S. dollar index are expected to continue, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates more than twice this year, further accelerating the decline of the dollar [2] - A significant portion of international capital is expected to flow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as these markets remain undervalued compared to U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The stock market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, with a notable increase in equity investments as investors seek opportunities amidst changing economic conditions [3] - Approximately 50 trillion RMB in fixed deposits will mature in 2026, leading to a potential shift in investment preferences towards stocks or bonds based on risk tolerance [3] - The current market environment suggests that high-quality stocks and funds may become key drivers of wealth differentiation, as the real estate investment phase has ended [5]