波黑工业产值持续下滑，经济复苏面临多重挑战

Economic Performance - Bosnia's industrial output has declined for 13 consecutive quarters, a trend that began after the last elections and prior to the formation of a new national coalition [1] - The actual GDP growth rate has decreased from 0.7% to 0.5%, indicating a prolonged economic weakness [1] - The main growth drivers in the third quarter were trade, public administration, and sectors like healthcare, education, and information communication [1] Trade and Employment - Export growth has significantly slowed, with the third quarter's increase dropping to 1.4% from 2.4% and 3.5% in the first and second quarters, respectively [1] - Registered employment growth has continued to slow, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the third quarter; manufacturing jobs fell by 1.6%, agriculture by 3.6%, and mining by approximately 1% [1] Wage Trends - Nominal wage growth accelerated to 14.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, but slowed to 13.7% in October [1] - After adjusting for inflation, real wages increased by 10.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, ranking among the highest in the region, primarily driven by wage increases in hospitality, trade, manufacturing, and construction sectors [1] Economic Accounts and Investment - The economic account deficit slightly improved, narrowing from 3.3% of GDP in the second quarter to 3.1% in the third quarter [2] - Foreign direct investment net inflows decreased to around 2% of GDP, covering about two-thirds of the current account deficit, with reinvested earnings being a significant component [2] Challenges and Outlook - Analysts attribute the continuous decline in industrial output to weak external demand, but internal issues are seen as the main cause, particularly the deteriorating operations of two major electricity companies [2] - The current economic situation is concerning as it coincides with a period that should ideally see post-pandemic recovery; rising labor costs, unpredictable tax policies, and political instability are driving labor outflow [2]