成交量上涨、价格企稳 多地二手房交易升温

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities continues to warm up, driven by favorable policies and a tailwind effect from previous trends, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions observed since the beginning of 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first three weeks of 2026, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions showed a continuous increase, with recorded volumes reaching 1,115, 1,595, and 1,654 units respectively [2]. - Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions exceeded 5,000 units in the first 20 days of January 2026, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions surpassed 18,000 units by January 25, 2026, with expectations to exceed 22,000 units for the month [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Beijing's new real estate policy, implemented on December 24, 2025, led to a 33% increase in transaction volume within a month, alongside significant rises in market activity indicators [3]. - Multiple cities, including Tianjin and Nanjing, have also seen strong performances in second-hand housing, with daily transactions reaching levels comparable to peak periods [3]. - A series of favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been released, including tax reductions and adjustments to housing financing [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market has become the mainstay of current transactions, reflecting more stable market conditions compared to new housing [4]. - The delay of the Spring Festival has led to an earlier release of pent-up demand, contributing to increased activity in the housing market [8]. - There is a noticeable reduction in the bargaining space for second-hand housing prices, with some properties even requiring price increases due to heightened demand [9]. Group 4: Price Trends - The increase in transaction volumes has begun to halt the decline in real estate prices, with reports of narrowing bargaining ranges for second-hand properties in cities like Shanghai and Nanjing [9][10]. - The price index for second-hand residential properties in 15 key cities has risen for five consecutive weeks, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [10]. - Despite the positive trends, caution is advised as the sustainability of demand remains uncertain, particularly in cities lacking population and industrial support [10].