美元跌至四年低谷，特朗普不担心：美元表现出色，能找到合理水平

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. policies are increasing among investors, leading to the U.S. dollar falling to its lowest level against major currencies in four years, while President Trump remains unconcerned about the dollar's decline [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Investor Sentiment - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 96.20, marking its lowest point since February 2022, with a daily drop of over 0.9% [2]. - The Bloomberg dollar spot index also experienced a four-day decline, reaching its lowest level since March 2022, reflecting the largest four-day drop since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April of the previous year [2]. - Investors are seeking hedges against further dollar weakness, with short-term option premiums rising to the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011 [6]. Group 2: Structural Factors Affecting the Dollar - Structural factors such as declining confidence in U.S. trade and security policies, the politicization of the Federal Reserve, and deteriorating U.S. fiscal credibility are likely to exert downward pressure on the dollar [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair and potential government shutdown risks further complicate the dollar's outlook [6]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Reactions - Other major currencies have strengthened against the dollar, with the Japanese yen rising over 3% in the last three trading days and the euro reaching its highest level since June 2021 [5]. - The dollar's decline has prompted speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government to support the yen, particularly following reports of possible coordinated action with the U.S. [7][8]. - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates, with two anticipated rate cuts of 25 basis points each later in the year, contrasting with expectations from other major central banks [9].