欧洲经济艰难“爬坡”（环球热点）

Core Viewpoint - The European economy is at a new starting point of moderate recovery intertwined with multiple challenges as it enters 2026, with inflation gradually retreating to target levels and economic growth showing some resilience, despite ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical risks [1] Economic Growth Outlook - The European economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2025, with the Eurozone GDP growth projected at approximately 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, while the overall EU growth rate is anticipated to remain at 1.4% for both years [1][2] - The EU's economic performance is showing signs of improvement compared to the previous three years characterized by high prices, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth [1][3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Inflation in the Eurozone is showing signs of easing, with the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rising by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November [2] - The EU Commission forecasts a decline in the overall inflation rate from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, with the European Central Bank expecting it to drop to 1.9% in 2026 [2] Structural Challenges - The EU faces significant structural challenges, including high debt levels, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 84.5% in 2024 to 85% in 2027, and the Eurozone's ratio projected to increase from approximately 88% to 90.4% [6] - Economic divergence among EU member states is evident, with Eastern and Southern countries like Poland and Spain showing strong growth, while core economies like Germany and France remain relatively weak [6] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Trade barriers have reached historical highs, with increased average tariffs on EU exports to the US, which may further suppress economic growth [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine crisis and US-EU trade disagreements, continue to pose risks to the economic recovery [5][6] Policy Measures and Future Prospects - The EU's recovery fund of €750 billion and various policy tools are expected to support public investment and growth in green and digital sectors [8] - Despite positive factors, short-term challenges such as tariff risks, inflation pressures, and high debt levels are likely to persist, potentially leading to a slight decline in economic growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [8]