What to Watch for in Meta's Earnings: 2026 CapEx and AI Updates

Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms reported disappointing earnings in Q3 2025, causing a share price drop of over 11%. The upcoming Q4 2025 report on January 28 is highly anticipated, with a focus on guidance for 2026 [2]. Financial Performance - Analysts expect Meta to report revenue of $58.3 billion for Q4 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 20% to 21%. Adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.16, indicating around 2% growth. Meta has outperformed these expectations in the last two quarters [3]. - For Q1 2026, analysts project sales of $51.3 billion, which would represent a 21% growth. A typical seasonal decline in revenue from Q4 to Q1 is not considered alarming due to increased holiday advertising spending [4]. Capital Expenditure Guidance - Investors are particularly focused on Meta's capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. In Q3, the company indicated a significant increase in spending, with initial guidance for 2025 set at $71 billion, potentially rising to over $100 billion in 2026. This has raised concerns among investors regarding the effectiveness of past AI investments [5]. - The capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is expected to be a critical metric in the upcoming earnings release, as shares have struggled since the last report in October 2025 [6].