上证国际 | 1月暂停降息几成定局 美联储与白宫博弈变数丛生

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting on January 29, 2025, amid a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing inflation pressures [2][3]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and the previous quarter's 3.8% [3]. - The job market's growth has slowed but stabilized, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut rates to support economic recovery [3]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the overall PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, focusing on assessing the effects of previous rate cuts and avoiding excessive easing that could trigger inflation [3][4]. - The key focus for investors will be the Fed's forward guidance regarding inflation and employment outlook, as well as its assessment of current reserve levels [4]. Political Dynamics - External political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with ongoing legal issues involving Fed officials and speculation about the next Fed chair [5][6]. - The potential nomination of Rick Riedel as the next Fed chair has gained traction, with a 50% probability of selection, reflecting alignment with the White House's reform agenda [5][6]. - Riedel's proposals for monetary policy, including a call to lower the benchmark interest rate to around 3%, suggest a more dovish stance that could influence future Fed decisions [6]. Market Implications - Any subtle hints regarding the timing or thresholds for rate cuts during the upcoming meeting could lead to market re-evaluations [4]. - The Fed's policy direction will depend on economic data trends in inflation and employment throughout the year [7].