大涨三天，日元仍缺“临门一脚”？花旗策略师：回流国债才是真正催化剂

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has experienced its strongest three-day rally since August 2024, but Citigroup strategist Daniel Tobon remains cautious about turning bullish on the yen until domestic investors start reallocating funds back into the Japanese bond market [1] Group 1: Yen Movement and Market Reactions - The recent rebound of the yen was triggered by market speculation that Japan and the U.S. are preparing to intervene to support the yen's exchange rate, especially after the yen approached the 160 mark against the dollar, close to the level that would prompt official intervention [1] - On Tuesday, the yen appreciated by 1%, breaking below the 153 mark against the dollar [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The backdrop of the yen's rise includes a recent sell-off in the Japanese government bond market, driven by concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's fiscal plans, which may exacerbate Japan's already high government debt burden [1] - The bond market sell-off has led to a significant increase in Japanese government bond yields, potentially encouraging investors to withdraw funds from overseas and reinvest in domestic assets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Tobon suggests that a return of domestic funds to Japanese government bonds could signal a stronger buying opportunity for the yen, as it would alleviate fiscal concerns, although this may occur soon after the upcoming elections or take longer [2] - There remains a risk of the yen weakening again before the elections next month [1]