百利好早盘分析：本月按兵不动 降息空间有限

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are approaching the $5200 level, with expectations of no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve not hindering its rise [2] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is low, with GDP growth projected at 2.4% for this year and 2.2% for next year, both above the potential growth level recognized by the Fed [2] - CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% by the end of the year, while the probability of a U.S. recession has decreased from 30% in December to 23% [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has been on a bullish trend, with a potential for further upward movement, and support is noted at the $5140 level [2] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices have continued to rise slightly, reaching recent highs, supported by buying pressure from geopolitical risks [4] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last year's prediction, while the World Bank has raised its forecast to 2.6% [4] - Despite positive economic forecasts, the supply side remains challenging, with global oil supply expected to exceed demand by 3.69 million barrels per day this year [4] - Technical indicators show that oil prices have broken out of a downward channel, but may face resistance at previous high points, with support at $60.40 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a small upward movement, forming a range-bound pattern with potential for new highs [6] - The 1-hour cycle indicates that the adjustment phase has ended, with higher lows suggesting a likelihood of further upward movement, and support is noted at $7.85 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a significant bearish candle, indicating a potential top formation [7] - The 4-hour cycle shows converging high and low points, suggesting a possible symmetrical triangle formation, with resistance at the $53210 level [7]