IC Markets平台：市场预期转变助推欧元走强，美元面临多重压力

Group 1 - The euro has surpassed the 1.20 mark against the dollar for the first time since June 2021, reaching a peak of 1.2081 with a daily increase of 1.7%, amidst a general weakening of the dollar against G10 currencies [2] - The options market shows a significant increase in the premium for one-year euro call options relative to put options, indicating heightened market expectations for further euro strength [2] - The dollar's weakness is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and uncertainties from trade tensions, alongside increased allocations to gold and other reserve assets by central banks and institutions [2] Group 2 - The core focus remains on the Federal Reserve, with swap market pricing indicating that traders expect interest rates to remain unchanged this week and foresee fewer than two rate cuts for the year, each by 25 basis points [3] - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes a "data-dependent" and "cautious" approach in its policy statement without clearer tightening signals, the dollar may continue to face pressure, providing support for the euro [3] - Domestic political risks in the U.S. are also a concern, as the government faces potential shutdown risks, which could undermine short-term market confidence in the dollar [3]