If You Buy Upstart With $10,000 in 2026, Will You Become a Millionaire in 25 Years?

Core Insights - Upstart is leveraging artificial intelligence to innovate in the credit space, analyzing 2,500 variables to assess borrower risk and improve loan approval rates [1][6] - The stock has shown significant volatility, trading 88% below its peak but has increased 144% over the past three years, despite a 35% decline in the last year [2][6] - Upstart's revenue grew by 71% year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by a 128% increase in transaction volume, with personal loans being the primary product [3][4] Financial Performance - Management forecasts a net income of $50 million for the full year, aided by controlled engineering and product development costs [4] - The current market capitalization of Upstart is $4.5 billion, with a gross margin of 97.61% [6] Market Potential - Upstart operates in a massive total addressable market worth trillions, focusing on various lending verticals and collaborating with banks and credit unions [6] - The company is experiencing early success in auto loans and HELOCs, indicating potential for further growth [3] Long-term Outlook - There is speculation that if Upstart maintains a 20% annualized growth rate, an initial investment of $10,000 could grow to $1 million in 25 years, outperforming the S&P 500's historical average [2][7] - However, long-term success is uncertain due to the cyclical nature of the business and competition from larger financial institutions investing heavily in AI [7][8]