美元崩跌！特朗普“火上浇油”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly concerned about the unpredictability of U.S. policies, leading to the U.S. dollar's decline to a four-year low against major currencies. President Trump, however, remains unconcerned about the dollar's depreciation, asserting that it is performing well and suggesting that fluctuations in the exchange rate are normal [2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Investor Sentiment - The dollar's recent decline reflects investor caution amid unpredictable policy directions from Washington, including Trump's threats regarding Greenland [6]. - The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 96.00 to 95.60, marking its lowest level since February 2022, with a daily drop of approximately 1.5% [3]. - The Bloomberg dollar spot index has also seen a four-day decline, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, with a cumulative drop of over 3% in the last six trading days [3]. Group 2: Structural Factors Affecting the Dollar - Structural factors such as weakened confidence in U.S. trade and security policies, the politicization of the Federal Reserve, and deteriorating U.S. fiscal credibility are likely to exert downward pressure on the dollar [5]. - Analysts note that the risk premium for the dollar has accumulated again, particularly following Trump's threats regarding Greenland, which negatively impacted the dollar's performance [6]. Group 3: Global Currency Movements - As the dollar weakens, other major currencies have strengthened, with the Japanese yen rising over 4% in the last three trading days and the euro surpassing 1.20 against the dollar for the first time since June 2021 [5]. - An emerging market currency index has risen for the fourth consecutive day, reaching record highs amid the dollar's decline [5]. Group 4: Speculation on Intervention - Speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government to support the yen has increased, with reports suggesting that the Japanese finance ministry may coordinate with the U.S. if necessary [11]. - The dollar's decline against the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate dropping to 152.10, marking its lowest level since October 2025 [8]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair is adding pressure to the dollar, with analysts suggesting that Trump may announce a replacement for Powell following the Fed's interest rate decision [7]. - The potential for a government shutdown and the Republican Party's reluctance to separate funding for the Department of Homeland Security further complicate the outlook for the dollar [7].