浦银国际：料港股今年约1.6万亿港元市值股份解禁 高峰在9月涉5,309亿港元

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a wave of lock-up expirations, with a peak in September, while core sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their peak expirations in March and April [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The report anticipates that the lock-up expirations will not lead to a significant market downturn, provided that the upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market continues and liquidity remains ample [1] - However, stocks with a high lock-up ratio may face price pressure before and after the expiration [1] Group 2: Stock Selection - The company has identified 60 stocks that may face substantial selling pressure in the next 12 months due to the upcoming lock-up expirations [1] - For fundamentally strong companies, irrational declines triggered by lock-up expirations may present medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Lock-up Scale - It is estimated that approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares will be unlocked in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with monthly unlock amounts exceeding HKD 100 billion for six months [1] - September is highlighted as a critical time for the market, with an expected unlock of HKD 530.89 billion (totaling 44.62 billion shares), accounting for 32.6% of the annual total and equivalent to 31% of the total market capitalization of related companies and 113% of the free float market capitalization [1] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The Gold and Precious Metals sector has the highest unlock scale and a significant proportion of circulating shares, while the core sectors of Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their unlock peaks in March and April, warranting attention to their supply pressure [1]