美元指数月跌超2.2%触近四年低位，2026年美元兑日元延续偏弱走势

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a continued weakening trend due to multiple internal and external factors affecting both currencies [1] Group 1: USD Factors - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, with a cumulative decline of over 2.2% this month [1] - Uncertainty surrounding President Trump's domestic and foreign policies has weakened global investor confidence in US assets [1] - Risks of a US government shutdown, rumors regarding the Federal Reserve chair position, and tensions with NATO allies, particularly over Greenland, are further dragging down the dollar's performance [1] Group 2: JPY Factors - Japan's domestic fiscal and political uncertainties are simultaneously suppressing the yen's performance [1] - Prime Minister Sanna Takagi's proposed expansionary fiscal plan raises concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability, with plans to eliminate food sales tax and implement aggressive fiscal spending [1] - Japan's government debt has exceeded 200% of GDP for several consecutive years, and these plans are seen as potentially worsening fiscal conditions, putting mid-term pressure on the yen [1] - The upcoming House of Representatives by-election on February 8 adds to policy direction uncertainties, diminishing the yen's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Barclays' senior forex strategist Lefteris Farmakis noted that the Greenland incident has raised the risk premium on the dollar, indicating a long-term bearish outlook for the currency [1] - Rumors of potential US-Japan currency intervention are amplifying the dollar's decline, signaling the US government's willingness to tolerate a weaker dollar to enhance export competitiveness [1][2] - The market is now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to be a core driver of the short-term USD/JPY trend [2]