Omdia：疯狂上涨的存储成本将抑制今年智能手机AMOLED需求

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments are expected to decline to 810 million units in 2026, down from 817 million units in 2025, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth [1] - The primary reason for this decline is the shortage of memory supply and skyrocketing prices, leading smartphone manufacturers to lower their procurement plans for 2026 [1] - The price increase of memory has approached or even exceeded the cost of smartphone display panels, limiting the room for AMOLED manufacturers to offer substantial discounts in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The current memory supply tightness and price surge are directly attributed to the surge in demand from AI servers, which prioritize storage capacity for high-margin products, tightening supply for the entire consumer electronics chain [4] - An overlooked factor contributing to this situation is the escalation of geopolitical tensions, alongside the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which has weakened the dollar and attracted speculative capital into dollar-denominated commodities markets, including gold, silver, copper, and semiconductors [4] - The combination of industrial and financial attributes of these products, along with investors' demand for hedging against inflation, has further amplified price elasticity, leading to a revaluation of basic material pricing, which transmits input inflation to midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors [4]