国金策略：跨市场比较来看，港股红利依旧具备性价比

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of low macro risks in AI investment and a declining interest rate cycle, the global manufacturing industry is expected to improve, leading to a focus on growth rates rather than dividend yields in investment strategies [1][2] - The dividend strategy in 2026 may struggle to achieve excess returns compared to the overall market, as the focus shifts to marginal changes in fundamentals rather than dividend returns [2][10] - The performance of the dividend strategy in 2025 lagged significantly behind the market due to the emergence of new growth sectors, particularly in AI-related industries, and a shift in market dynamics [2][6][10] Group 2 - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market's low-volatility dividend index outperformed the A-share market by 49%, primarily driven by the industrial, financial, and energy sectors [3][22] - Despite the high dividend payout ratio in Hong Kong stocks, the absolute PE valuation is now comparable to A-shares, but the dividend yield remains more attractive due to higher payout ratios [3][25] - The future performance difference between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may not be as pronounced as in 2025, as the space for convergence in dividend yields has become limited [3][40] Group 3 - The construction of a dividend portfolio for 2026 should focus on sectors with fundamental elasticity and potential for increased dividend payouts, rather than solely on historical dividend ratios [4][43] - Key sectors benefiting from the expected economic recovery include traditional manufacturing and resource sectors, which are anticipated to see improved performance due to increased demand and reduced supply constraints [4][43] - A scoring system combining win rates and odds based on dividend yield and stability has been developed to identify sectors for investment, with recommendations to increase allocations in sectors with strong performance potential [4][43]