Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-28 05:54Group 1 - Coal stocks showed strong performance in the afternoon, with notable increases in prices for companies such as Qinfa (up 11.68% to HKD 4.11), Power Development (up 8.18% to HKD 1.72), Yanzhou Coal (up 4.25% to HKD 11.52), China Shenhua (up 3.62% to HKD 43.54), and China Coal Energy (up 3.27% to HKD 11.38) [1] - According to Huayuan Securities, coal prices have shown a quarterly downward trend since the beginning of 2023, with a potential price rebound expected in Q4 2025, which could lead to a sequential performance improvement for the sector [1] - In early January 2026, some provinces are pushing for the exit of certain coal supply capacities, which could significantly improve coal supply and demand dynamics, leading to a notable reduction in coal inventories and potential price elasticity within the year [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities forecasts a reversal in the global coking coal supply-demand balance, with declining production and increasing demand, which is expected to drive prices higher alongside decreasing costs, leading to significant performance improvements [2] - Coking coal prices have been higher by CNY 269 per ton compared to the average price in Q1 2025, with costs for coking coal companies gradually decreasing to low levels, indicating a potential for significant performance improvement in the first quarter [2] - The net profit per unit of high-quality coking coal companies is significantly lower than that of thermal coal companies, failing to reflect the scarcity of coking coal resources [2]