ETO Markets 外汇：美元小幅收复跌幅，多重因素限制反弹

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has shown signs of rebound but remains in a weak position overall, having previously dropped to its lowest level since February 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The rebound in the dollar index occurred ahead of key risk events, particularly the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [3] - Market pricing indicates that investors anticipate at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which exerts long-term pressure on the dollar [3] - The direction of the dollar in the short term is heavily dependent on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with dovish signals potentially limiting the dollar's rebound [3] Group 2: Policy Environment - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, further constraining the dollar [3] - President Trump has indicated he will soon announce his preferred candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, predicting that rates will decrease under the new leadership, adding to market uncertainty [3] Group 3: Trading Dynamics - The recent rise in the dollar index is likely linked to position adjustments, as some short sellers opted to take profits or reduce risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [4] - The technical analysis shows that the dollar index's drop below the 97.20–97.00 support zone was seen as a significant shorting signal, indicating a clear shift in short-term resistance [4]