年终变淡季，2026年初4S店冷清到销售提前过年

Core Viewpoint - The automotive dealership industry is experiencing a significant downturn, characterized by reduced customer traffic and sales, primarily due to policy changes, high inventory pressure, and evolving consumer demands [1][3][16] Group 1: Market Conditions - The end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 saw a net reduction of 1,480 dealerships in China, with 2,749 stores closing [3] - In the first half of January 2026, dealer customer traffic dropped by 22.6% compared to late December 2025, and order volume plummeted by 54.1% [4][3] - The inventory of passenger vehicles surged to 3.65 million units by the end of 2025, with a turnover period of 66 days, significantly exceeding the healthy international range [6] Group 2: Profitability Challenges - The shift in policy regarding the new energy vehicle purchase tax has led to a demand imbalance, causing dealers to lose motivation to push sales and opt for a "winter retreat" strategy [4] - By the end of 2025, 74.4% of dealers faced price inversion issues, with 43.6% experiencing a price drop exceeding 15% [8] - Dealers are forced to reduce prices to clear inventory, with significant discounts on models like the BMW i7 and Cadillac CT5, but these actions often lack support from manufacturers [8] Group 3: Structural Changes in the Industry - The traditional dealership model is facing a crisis due to deep changes in channel strategies and shifts in consumer preferences [9] - New energy brands are adopting "light models" that reduce operational costs and enhance efficiency, posing a competitive threat to traditional dealerships [11] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in lower-tier markets reached 42% in 2025, expected to rise to 45% in 2026, highlighting a missed opportunity for traditional dealerships [15] Group 4: Consumer Behavior Shifts - New energy brands are establishing showrooms in key commercial areas and communities, significantly increasing customer traffic compared to traditional dealerships [13] - The younger consumer demographic prioritizes price transparency and digital experiences, which traditional dealerships struggle to provide [13] - By 2025, 65% of car-buying decisions considered channel service quality as a top factor, indicating a shift in consumer expectations [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current downturn in traditional dealerships is seen as a wake-up call for the industry, emphasizing the need for adaptation to new market realities [16] - To survive, traditional dealerships must develop robust profit models, enhance service quality, and explore new growth opportunities in the evolving automotive landscape [16]