Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-28 06:43Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy (02319) is experiencing a near 3% increase in stock price, currently at HKD 16.13, with a trading volume of HKD 312 million. The company is expected to see a significant recovery in cyclical profits this year compared to its peers in the essential consumer goods sector [1]. Group 1: Dairy Industry Insights - As of January 15, the average price of fresh milk is at RMB 3.03 per kilogram, showing a week-on-week increase of RMB 0.01 per kilogram, with raw milk prices at levels last seen in October 2010 [1]. - Since the second half of 2025, raw milk prices have fluctuated between RMB 3.02 and RMB 3.04 per kilogram, indicating a sustained low price environment and accelerated capacity reduction in farms [1]. - As of January 23, the price for culling cows is RMB 19.93 per kilogram, which is a 2.5% increase compared to the beginning of the year, suggesting an approaching turning point in industry supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Company Performance Expectations - Citigroup forecasts that Mengniu Dairy's sales will recover to high single-digit growth from January to February this year, with an overall expected growth of 5% for the year [1]. - The stabilization of raw milk prices in the middle of this year, combined with positive operating leverage and a relatively low comparison base, is anticipated to lead to an expansion in the company's operating profit margin [1].