国海证券：供需改善确定性增强 航司业绩弹性可期

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities initiates coverage on the airline transportation industry with a "recommended" rating, indicating a potential recovery in ticket prices and performance growth for airlines in the coming years [1] Supply - Future supply growth in the airline industry is expected to be limited due to high current load factors and utilization rates, with airlines facing challenges in increasing available capacity [2] - The net increase in the number of aircraft for five major airlines (Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines) is projected to be +4.0% in 2025, slightly below the initial plan of +4.2% [2] - New aircraft deliveries are delayed, and the delivery pace is expected to remain below planned growth rates, maintaining low supply growth in the future [2] Demand - Domestic demand is showing signs of gradual recovery, with business travel slowly rebounding and leisure travel remaining active, particularly during holiday periods [3] - International travel demand is expected to grow, with the average monthly passenger volume for international routes reaching 6.64 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, surpassing 2019 levels [3] - The inbound tourism sector benefits from visa-free transit policies, with a significant increase in foreign visitors, indicating strong future growth potential [3] Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of tightening supply and steady growth in travel demand, which will support a rebound in low ticket prices and lead to high performance elasticity for airlines [4]