BBMarkets：美元兑日元低位波动，日元收复跌幅但涨幅受限

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate are primarily driven by diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve, with domestic uncertainties in Japan limiting the yen's appreciation potential [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The BOJ's December monetary policy meeting minutes indicate a consensus among committee members to continue raising interest rates, maintaining a normalization pace that began in 2025 [1]. - The BOJ has already raised rates twice in 2025, bringing the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 [1]. - There is increased confidence among BOJ members regarding a positive wage-price cycle, which supports the reduction of monetary easing and clarifies market expectations for future rate hikes [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement two rounds of rate cuts in 2026, contrasting sharply with the BOJ's tightening stance, which underpins the low-yielding yen [3]. - Speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen has provided some emotional support, allowing the yen to recover some losses during Asian trading hours [3]. - However, the yen's ability to achieve sustained appreciation is constrained by multiple domestic uncertainties, including concerns over Japan's fiscal health due to proposed tax cuts and increased spending ahead of the upcoming elections [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate is directly influenced by the performance of the US dollar, with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and subsequent comments from Chairman Powell expected to be critical for the dollar's trajectory [4]. - The dollar's recent rebound faces resistance from concerns about the Fed's independence and economic policy risks stemming from US trade and geopolitical decisions, which may limit the dollar's upward potential [4]. - Technically, the USD/JPY pair is showing signs of short-term pressure, trading below the 100-day simple moving average and under the 154.00 level, indicating a bearish trend [4].