Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-28 08:20Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for the "Mag 7" tech giants, including Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, will focus on spending trends, with expectations of a 20% profit growth in Q4, the slowest since early 2023 [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - The "Mag 7" companies have a combined market capitalization of $10.5 trillion, with significant investor focus on capital expenditure guidance [1] - Nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded analyst expectations so far, with strong performance anticipated from tech stocks [1] - Wolfe Research indicates that companies exceeding both revenue and profit expectations have seen negative stock performance post-earnings, suggesting a potential unsustainability of this trend [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Focus - Morgan Stanley projects unprecedented investment expansions among tech giants, with Meta expected to guide capital expenditures of approximately $120 billion for 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's guidance [2] - Microsoft anticipates a capital expenditure increase exceeding $1.4 trillion for 2026, with a quarterly guidance indicating a growth of over $35 billion [2] - Google’s capital expenditure forecast for 2026 is around $1.35 trillion, potentially rising to $1.5 trillion due to growth in cloud and TPU businesses [2] - Amazon's capital expenditure remains less transparent, but estimates suggest a total of $175 billion for 2026, up from $125 billion in 2025 [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Microsoft is seen as "stuck between SaaS and OpenAI," with a need to accelerate Azure growth to over 40% to boost stock performance [3] - Meta faces cautious investor sentiment due to concerns over spending and AI strategy, despite revenue growth expectations of around $60 billion for Q4 [4] - Tesla's financial KPIs for Q4 and 2026 are highly variable, with stock performance hinging on updates regarding new technologies and product launches [5][6] - Amazon's stock remains under pressure, with investor focus on AWS revenue growth expected to be around 21% for Q4, while Google anticipates a search revenue growth of 15%-16% [7]